As both candidates secured their parties’ respective nominations, the November 5, 2024 US presidential election is looking to be a Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden rematch.
In a fiery State of the Union address (SOTU) on the night of March 8, President Biden drew battle lines with Trump ahead of November’s presidential election. Acknowledging the stakes if he got anything wrong at the SOTU, the US president defended himself against accusations of being too old. “In my career I’ve been told I’m too young and I’m too old,” Biden said as some 32 million Americans tuned in to watch, he took on Republican hecklers and criticised Israel for refusing to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza.
Biden is 81, and Trump is 77 so neither of them are spring chickens, but the former’s verbal and literal stumbling has meant that a little bit more of the age issue is reflected on him. Almost a month ago, during an impromptu press conference, President Biden said his memory is “fine” and lambasted a Justice Department report on his handling of classified information, particularly its questions about his mental acuity and age. Biden answered defiantly — and sometimes angrily — questions about his capacity to continue serving in the White House.
Yet even as he defended himself against a tide of scrutiny about his mental fitness, Biden mistakenly referred to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as the leader of Mexico. Before that he mixed up Helmut Kohl and Angela Merkel of Germany and Mitterrand and Macron of France.
It was a good week for Trump — the US Supreme Court overturned an attempt to block him from the ballot in Colorado and polls showed him ahead of Biden in the presidential race. On Super Tuesday, Trump secured victories in several Republican primaries across the country. His only major challenger, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, dropped out last week after his Super Tuesday triumph.
The former president has doubled down on the most controversial aspects of his first term, threatening to abandon NATO allies and promise to tackle illegal immigration. Domestically, abortion or what Biden chose to refer to as ‘reproductive freedom in his SOTU is a major issue in this election and both candidates hold contrasting opinions on it. With Trump leaning toward restricting abortion, the motivation to vote is significantly higher on the Democratic side now.
Difference in perspective does not translate into fundamentally different positions
Creating an unusual spectacle, Biden and Trump recently travelled to Texas border towns, acknowledging the centrality of the immigration issue. Opinion polls show broad public disapproval of how President Biden has handled the surge in illegal border crossings, averaging 2 million per year since 2021. Although Trump, also faced criticism for his immigration policies, he is perceived as more effective against illegal immigration.
Their foreign policy positions are harder to discern. Overtly, Trump’s presidency was rooted in unilateralism, confrontation, and a focus on “America First,” Biden adopted the phrase, ‘America is Back’ emphasising diplomacy and multilateralism. This perspective does not however translate into fundamentally different positions, merely approach to foreign policy issues.
Biden has spent years chairing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and foreign policy is considered his point of expertise. He took a big political punch for the drawdown in Afghanistan, but made good on a promise to get the United States out of Afghanistan.
He has been very aggressive in his support of Ukraine and steadfast in his support of Israel, which may be potentially jeopardising relationships with people within his own party who support the Palestinians. His administration had to make public calls for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Trump has called Gaza militant group Hamas a “problem” stating, “You’ve got to finish the problem. You had a horrible invasion. It took place. It would have never happened if I was president, by the way.” And so that can have electoral ramifications.
Trump who earlier withheld military aid to Ukraine impeachment proceedings, has now declared that Russian President Vladimir Putin can “do whatever the hell he wants” with respect to NATO allies. Biden on the other hand opened his SOTU rallying for American support for Ukraine. “We will not walk away. We will not bow down. I will not bow down.”
No change expected in Indo-US ties and US’s China policy
There is bipartisan support for expansive engagement with India. Both Prime Ministers Narendra Modi and Manmohan Singh were invited by Democratic presidents for rare US state visits. Republican administrations have historically been more suited to Indian sensibilities especially as they take less interest in concerns about India’s democracy, human rights and press freedoms.
Both the Democrats and Republicans have courted the fairly affluent and educated Indian American vote bloc, largely residing in potential swing states like Texas, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
So while augmenting Indo-US ties is a given for both candidates, it is their posture vis-a-vis China that generates the most interest. At the Biden-Xi meeting on the sidelines of the APEC Leaders summit in the US there was an attempt to restore a degree of affability to an extremely hostile and competitive relationship.
Despite disagreeing with Trump’s China policy, the Biden administration has maintained existing tariffs and imposed restrictions on sharing technology. It is unlikely that the course of US’s China policy will alter fundamentally post elections whosoever assumes office.
Most voters decide for whom they will vote relatively early in the campaign season and the polls show Trump is ahead, however narrowly, in enough states right now to win the electoral college and the presidency. In the meantime, the Biden versus Trump campaign is witnessing intense competition, fierce online activities and abusive debates on social networks.
Vaishali Basu Sharma is a strategic and economic affairs analyst.
