Synopsis

Lok Sabha elections: Ranged across from each other are the opposition’s INDIA alliance and the ruling NDA which is now becoming a formidable alliance with BJP stitching deals with various small and regional parties as it aims to cross the 400-seat mark.

The Game of Thrones begins: It's a bloc versus bloc battle now
All in all, BJP’s NDA has now emerged as a formidable bloc while INDIA bloc has seen erosion.

The Election Commission has sounded the poll bugle by announcing the schedule for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections which will be held in 7 phases from April 19 to June 1. The counting of votes will be on June 4.

With this, the big battle for India has begun and ranged across from each other are the opposition’s INDIA alliance and the ruling NDA which is now becoming a formidable alliance with BJP stitching deals with various small and regional parties as it aims to cross the 400-seat mark.

Alliance huddles

The INDIA alliance, which began on a strong footing last year, was seen to be unravelling with important partners such as TMC and JDU parting ways and many discordant notes such as the alliance partner CPI fielding a candidate at Wayanad where Rahul Gandhi will be contesting again and AAP and Congress “mutually agreeing” to fight separately in Punjab. The strong show of unity visible last year has now faded even though the alliance has managed to seal deals in important states such as Uttar Pradesh. Exodus of several big leaders from Congress and alliance partner JDU of Nitish Kumar came as setbacks for Congress.

The BJP, on the other hand, has been quietly working on seat deals with various smaller parties to strengthen its NDA bloc of parties. Its biggest win came in January when Nitish cracked the INDIA bloc by rejoining NDA. BJP has also entered into a deal with Chirag Paswan in Bihar though that has upset his estranged uncle Pashupati Kumar Paras who is a Union minister. They head separate factions of Lok Janshakti Party started by Chirag’s father Ram Vilas Paswan.

In Uttar Pradesh, small alliances stitched up by the BJP show that it is not taking any chances. Its biggest win in UP was bagging the RLD of Jayant Choudhry which was part of the INDIA block. It has also sealed deals with Apna Dal (Sone Lal) and the Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (SBSP). In Andhra Pradesh, it has aligned with TDP and actor-politician Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena Party, forging an alliance that can get the maximum of anti-YSRCP votes. It is in the process of striking a deal with BJD in Odisha. The BJP has allied with the principal Opposition party, Tipra Motha, for the two seats in Tripura. It already has a deal with JD(S) in Karnataka and Ajit Pawar’s NCP and Shinde’s Shiv Sena in Maharashtra. In Tamil Nadu, it is parted ways from AIADMK as it seems to be willing to test its own strength under its new dynamic leader K. Annamalai. A deal could take place with Shiromani Akali Dal in Punjab.

All in all, BJP’s NDA has now emerged as a formidable bloc while INDIA bloc has seen erosion. BJP’s aspiration to cross the 400-seat mark has pushed it to aggressively seek partners.

The thickening plots

For once, the emerging INDIA bloc had breathed life in opposition even though BJP’s win in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh elections dampened the opposition’s spirit later. The inauguration of Ram Mandir, an event that captured the attention of the whole nation for weeks, positioned BJP as a likely winner. Observers and experts started predicting a comfortable BJP victory. Nitish and Jayant Choudhury leaving the INDIA bloc to join NDA were big blows to the opposition. the upcoming elections started looking more like a matter of how many more seats BJP would win instead of whether it will win or not. In the days leading to the announcement of elections, Prime Minister Narendra Modi inaugurated a large number of developmental projects across the country.

But disclosure of electoral bonds by SBI as directed by the Supreme Court has dominated the political discourse now with the opposition parties and critics of the ruling BJP linking donations by various companies to action on them by Central investigative agencies. Congress has also demanded a probe to reveal any quid pro quo between BJP and the donors. The Supreme Court has now directed SBI to reveal information on which company donated to which party. For once, electoral bonds have become the loudest issue muting all others. The glare is on BJP though many opposition parties too have received huge amounts of money through electoral bonds. The issue is likely to be in public discourse for some more time and could be more damaging for the BJP than other parties since it wants to raise its tally beyond 400 seats.

However, a poll-season issue may not dilute the enduring narrative of development, Hindutva and nationalism that BJP has constructed in its favour especially when opposition unity has eroded.

Cash crunch

Banning of electoral bonds by the Supreme Court will definitely lead to less money changing hands during elections. Parties, especially those that hoped to get last-minute financial support through electoral bonds, will suffer the most. On top of it, the Election Commission has said it will be stricter in containing the four M’s (muscle, money, misinformation, and model code violations. Availability of less cash for political parties will certainly impact the intensity of election campaigns of most affected parties.

( Originally published on Mar 16, 2024 )

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