Just when heads of Western military alliance Nato will be meeting in a summit from July 9 to 11 in Washington next week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be the guest of Russian President Vladimir Putin in Russia on July 8-9.
Ukraine will weigh on the minds of Nato members as Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has said that support to Ukraine will be NATO’s “most urgent task”. “I expect heads of state and government will agree to a substantial package for Ukraine,” said Stoltenberg. “NATO will take over the coordination and provision of most international security assistance.” He added that Allies will agree a financial pledge for Ukraine, and that he also expects more immediate military support. All of these elements “constitute a bridge to NATO membership and a very strong package for Ukraine at the Summit,” he said, adding: “Ukraine is moving closer to NATO”.
The timing of Modi’s visit has raised questions about the signal India could be sending. But Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra has rejected any connection and said Modi’s visit was part of the calendar of summits between the two countries. “The bilateral visit this time is just a scheduling priority that we have undertaken and that’s what it is,” he told reporters at a briefing.
However, the optics of Moti and Putin in close embrace while Nato leaders mull more support for Ukraine will be strikingly meaningful.
Projecting Modi-Putin ties
The most unmistakable message from the Modi-Putin summit will be that Russia is not isolated in the face of a united West. Days before the Nato Summit and meeting Modi, Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban has met Putin in Moscow in a show of rare solidarity because Hungary is a Nato member. Orban’s visit has been heavily criticised by EU leaders. Modi’s visit could be another occasion for Russia to project the failure of the West to isolate it.
Modi’s visit could help dispel worries that New Delhi is getting too close to the West and further away from Moscow, ceding space to China, analysts said. “It will be a good opportunity for Moscow to project in the media the image of President Putin receiving a leader of a country like India in the context of the Washington summit,” Aleksei Zakharov, a Moscow-based expert on India, told Reuters. “India’s objective is to ensure that Russia is not in China‘s corner and that, even if it does not explicitly support India, it maintains a permanent neutrality in the India-China territorial disputes.”
The leaders of Russia and India have held annual summits since 2000 but the last in-person meeting was in 2021, when Putin visited Delhi. The next meeting had been due in Moscow in 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, but it did not happen, while Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping elevated their ties, pledging a “new era” of partnership in May.
The dearth of Modi’s visits to Moscow had given “rise to speculation that there was some kind of drift in the Indo-Russia relationship,” analyst Nandan Unnikrishnan, of the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi, told Reuters. “So I think Modi’s visit will put an end to that kind of speculation,” he said. “And we don’t want to spoil our relationship with any party, whether it’s Russia, the United States, or anyone because of another relationship.”
What’s on the agenda?
Kremlin has said that no topics will be off-limits between Modi and Putin during their meeting. According to the officials, they will discuss regional and global security, trade and all other topics on the agenda during their meeting.
“We (Russia and India) jointly take part in integration processes, so regional affairs, regional security and global security are always at the top of the agenda. In addition, of course, our bilateral trade and economic interaction is always a focal point,” a Kremlin official said, answering a question about what topics will be discussed at the negotiations between Putin and Modi.
US deputy secretary of state Kurt Campbell has said that Washington has “some concerns” over India’s engagement with Russia in military and technology domains, while also expressing confidence and trust in advancing the India-US partnership. Asked if there are worries in Washington about sharing sensitive technologies with India, given New Delhi’s significant military and technology partnership with Russia, the deputy secretary of state said,
“We have been clear which areas are affected by the continuing relationship between India and Russia, militarily and technologically. I think we will take what steps we can to mitigate some of those engagements and we have expressed some concerns. But at the same time, we have confidence and trust in India and we’re seeking to advance our partnership in technology in the context of those different ties,” he said.
Foreign Secretary Vinay Kwatra on Friday said issues of regional and global interest will be on the agenda. The India-Russia summit will provide opportunities to discuss a whole range of bilateral ties, including in defence, investment, education and culture, and people-to-people ties, he said. Fixing India’s trade imbalance with Russia and securing the discharge of Indians misled into fighting in the Ukraine war will be among PM Modi’s priorities during talks in Moscow next week, a top official has told Reuters.
(With inputs from agencies)